Shifting Landscapes: Navigating the Russian Paintings Market in the Wake of Geopolitical Tensions
Tarabella Frazer, Research Associate & Customer Success Manager
Victoria Kleiner, Head of Art Due Diligence and Digital Art Expertise
Christopher Mann, MSc CEng MIET MIoP, Head of Data
Russia’s invasion into Ukraine on 24 February 2022 triggered a series of changes to the international Russian art market, particularly the Russian paintings market. Sotheby’s, Christie’s and Bonhams halted their biannual dedicated Russian paintings sales in London following the start of the invasion, with the last dedicated paintings sales being held in November 2021 during the November edition of Russian Art Week.[1] However, sales of Russian Works of Art, particularly Fabergé, have continued, since buyers and sellers are more diverse than those participating in the Russian paintings field. As a result of the interruption to the Russian paintings sales, the markets have suffered greatly for many artists regularly selling out of the three auction houses in the Russian painting category. However, certain artists have continued to flourish despite the cessation of the established Russian sales and have found new markets in different segments, including categories and geographies. These trends are evidenced by Overstone’s data analytics and provide further insight into this market.
The international Russian Art Market has experienced a decline over the last two decades since the peak of the market prior to the 2007-2008 Global Financial Crisis followed by the 2014 annexation of Crimea. Prior to November 2008, evening and day sales took place in London and New York and an auction house could command sale totals of 30-40 million GBP during each June and November season. Following Russia’s annexation of Crimea, evening and New York-based sales of Russian paintings ceased at the end of 2014. Between 2015 and 2017, an auction house’s season sale total ranged between 15 million GBP and lows of 8 million GBP, signalling a diminishing market. Increased economic sanctions imposed on Russia and named individuals between 2014 and 2019 can be attributed to this decline in market performance, since Russians are the primary buyers in Russian sales at the main auction houses.
The events of February 2022 caused even more significant changes to the Russian paintings market. In reaction to Russia’s invasion into Ukraine, on 15th March 2022 the UK Government, alongside its G7 allies, imposed sanctions banning the export of luxury goods, which includes works of art and antiques, to Russia.[2] Although still legal to sell art to Russian individuals, aside from named individuals on sanction lists, art cannot be directly exported to Russia. These restrictive measures imposed by the international community on the movement of works across borders severely restricted market participants in the Russian painting category.
Owing to the limits placed on Russia and Russian buyers, auction houses had no choice but to discontinue the sale category. However, sellers of Russian art are historically more diverse, owing to the emigration of artists and number of artworks that had left Russia following the Revolution. Sotheby’s, Christie’s and Bonhams, as well as other auction houses that previously held dedicated sales to Russian paintings, have been entering certain artists into other sale categories to continue their consignment at auction. The categories include Old Masters, Nineteenth Century Paintings, Orientalist, American and Impressionist and Modern Art and take place across London, Paris, and New York, thereby increasing the geographical exposure of the market, since over the last decade, the major Russian paintings sales held by the main houses have only taken place in London.
Consequently, Russian paintings have been entering the international auction market, albeit at a far smaller rate as prior to 2022. This is evidenced in the graph below, with the number of total lots and number of lots sold in 2022 and 2023 being a fraction of the figures from previous years.
Auction Sale Results of Artists featured in Russian Painting Sales, 2016-2023 (Overstone Analytics)
We can see in the graph above that the average low and high estimates in 2023 are comparable to 2021, and the average hammer price is in fact higher in 2023 than in 2021. The average estimates and hammer price were significantly higher in 2022 owing to the outstanding performance of one work and cannot be considered a true reflection of the current Russian paintings market. Furthermore, the sell-through rate increased in 2023 with almost all lots offered selling, a result far better than previous years. These trends indicate that despite fewer lots coming to auction, the works that did appear at auction were sought-after by market participants with few bought-in lots and selling closer to their estimates.
An artist who has successfully entered a new category is Ivan Aivazovsky, a nineteenth century artist of Armenian descent known for his museum-quality, monumental and detailed seascapes, who is now featured in Old Master evening and day sales and Nineteenth Century Painting sales. This trend is clear when analysing Aivazovsky’s performance at auction in the graph below. Notably, as mentioned above, one work from a European Private Collection sold for 1.7 million GBP including fees, more than double its high estimate (estimate 600,000-800,000 GBP) in December 2022, achieving one of the top 15 prices for Aivazovsky’s paintings at public auction. Aside from this extraordinary performance, Aivazovsky has performed well on the international market since 2022 with a 100% sell-through rate as visible in the graph below. The ten most recent sales of his work at Sotheby’s, Christie’s and Bonhams saw four works selling above their high estimate, three selling between their high and low estimates, and three selling below their low estimate. All sales took place outside their regular Russian paintings category, indicating that his market has continued despite the change in market circumstances in 2022.
Auction Sale Results of Ivan Aivazovsky, 2016-2023 (Overstone Analytics)
The majority of artists previously included in Russian sales have not featured in or sold at auction for prices above 50,000 USD at Sotheby’s, Christie’s or Bonhams since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, unless they were already included in non-Russian Art categories, or had a wider market outside of Russia. This is the case for many émigré artists, such as Marc Chagall and Wassily Kandinsky, who are frequently and historically sold in Impressionist and Modern Art categories at the marquee sales. Their prices typically command a higher premium in the Impressionist and Modern Art sales than their contemporaries in Russian sales. As a result, these higher prices do not impact the Russian category, particularly at the premium level.
Kazimir Malevich and Natalia Goncharova are artists known more widely to the international market and have crossed different categories, moving at times to Impressionist and Modern Art sales, more often when the work offered is high in value. For example, Malevich’s painting Suprematist Composition (1916) sold in 2018 at Christie’s Impressionist and Modern Art Evening Sale in New York for a hammer price of 76 million USD, the highest price achieved for the artist’s work. The artist’s Suprematist works are highly sought-after by collectors across the globe, not just by the domestic Russian market.
Goncharova more frequently appears in Russian paintings sales, with certain pieces included in single-owner sales and intermittently in Impressionist and Modern Art sales for certain consignments. Works on paper, more frequently sketches for Ballets Russes productions following her emigration to Paris in 1914, are most frequent to come to market, however they command lower prices than her sought-after Neo-Primitivist and Rayonist oils. Her top prices have historically been achieved in Impressionist and Modern Art categories for such works, indicating that although her main market is in Russian paintings, her top masterpieces were better placed in a different category to attract buyers outside of the Russian paintings sphere. Both Malevich and Goncharova are widely forged, so the rarity of high-quality authenticated works command premium prices; however, such high performing works do not impact the Russian Paintings market when placed outside of the category.
The Russian Contemporary and Non-Conformist paintings market can be considered aside from the established Russian paintings market, as it is an emerging field with lower price points and the artists are not as well-known on an international scale. Sotheby’s, Christie’s, Bonhams and other Russian art-focused houses have regularly consigned works by Russian contemporary and Soviet non-conformist artists. Past sales have been wholly dedicated to this category, such as the auction of the Bar-Gera Collection of Non-Conformist Art in 2016 at Sotheby’s.
Auction Sale Results of Russian Non-Conformist and Contemporary Paintings with low estimates above $50,000, 2016-2022 (Overstone Analytics)
As we can see in the graph above, the market for Russian contemporary paintings was developing prior to 2022 with a significant increase in the number of total lots appearing and selling at auction in 2021, likely assisted by the Sotheby’s sale “Escape Artists – The Non-Conformists Online” in September 2021. As with the main Russian paintings market, 2022 saw a considerable decrease in sales of Russian contemporary artists and no works with low estimates above 50,000 USD appeared at auction in 2023, signalling shrinkage of this segment.
Overall, it is clear the current market for Russian paintings is constricted with very few works appearing at auction. The reported softening of the art market as a whole since 2022, along with the continuation of the conflict in Ukraine and sanctions imposed on Russian buyers and sellers, signals limited sale performance. However, the gradual integration of select artists into different categories indicates the potential for growth, albeit at a slow pace. Indeed, the increase in average hammer prices since 2021 and number of lots offered at auction since 2022 indicates that growth is already beginning to occur. If this trend continues, it seems likely that the accessibility of the Russian paintings market, in terms of lower pricing and increased exposure to the wider international market, will increase, thus allowing for the market to grow again when the situation is more settled.
[1] Russian Art Week would take place in June and November, but has been paused since February 2022
[2] Department for International Trade and HM Treasury, 15 March 2022, Press release: UK announces new economic sanctions against Russia, online, available from from: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-announces-new-economic-sanctions-against-russia [Accessed 05/03/2024]